Gloomy forecasters, still
Last year I commented on how gloomy forecasters' had been on Indonesia's economic growth. Guess what: They still are.
The average forecast of first quarter growth by a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 12 regional economists is 5.75 percent. The economy actually grows by 6 percent. On average, they miss the target by about 25 percentage points.
So, will all the glooms go away? Maybe not yet. As the good news about Indonesia's economy continues flowing, however, the forecasters would have to eventually turn about face.
I mean, it would embarrassing for them to consistently underestimate the strength of Indonesia's economy, right?
9 comments:
science ain't a democracy - and therefore i never trust those polls.
Pak, IMHO the last time Indonesia had a Krismon very few economists saw it coming. If at the next Krismon the Rupiah goes to Rp.15000 to the Dollar, it will be the Rakyat who suffer. Better to be conservative in outlook than be sorry. I think there is still too many things wrong with the fundamentals in the Indonesian economy. But hey, I'm just a tech geek (not an economist) :) :) [TH]
Syad,
I'd think a 25 bp difference is negligible no? And, the 6% growth itself may face correction in the future after the data are scoured over.
Having said that, the negativity about Indonesia, our situation, our prospect is sickening. Especially when it comes from our own intelligentsia.
the forecast may use one year lag variables. for a country like Indonesia, some significant disturbance may be happened in one year. it could randomly be big! and still needs to be considered for calibrating the values dynamically. take the half of it. 3%!!! is in fact the neutral probability 50-50 between 6% and 0%.
Forecasting is difficult alright, and 25 percentage points may be not much, but what I don't understand is this: some forecasters continue underestimating Indonesia's growth for years.
indonesia may enjoy prosperous macro economic growth. but the micro is plain bullshit.
sorry i feel uncomfortable with word "plain bullshit". this may be like that since a micro people like you often use that word. micro is about how you behave, denica!
Reardless of the words used--Denica is correct. The macro numbers of Indonesia give a much different picture than that of the micro-situation. I have experienced this first hand. Unless you are part of a very, very, very select group--opportunities are just as difficult to obtain as they are the US. Indonesia is a growing economy and opportunites should be a lot more available. i closed my business and returned to the US with my wife. I suppose I could have opened a restaurant rather than a IT consulting/Web Design firm but I am a terrible cook.
Regardless of whatever figure posted does not really matter to discuss or argue about it. If you want the real data just spend a little bit time and survey to the market yourself about our GDP levels. If economy is good, most of people would say okey without crying bad life!
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